F1 faces disruption as Bahrain and Saudi races set to fall

Escalating conflict in the Middle East is expected to force Formula 1 to cancel two of its most lucrative events, reshaping the early phase of the season.

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Formula 1 is preparing to cancel the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix, a decision that would reshape the early part of the championship calendar and remove two of the sport’s most commercially valuable races.

While a formal announcement has not yet been made, the outcome appears increasingly inevitable as the ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran continues to escalate, raising serious safety concerns for teams, staff and event personnel.

The races — scheduled for April 12 in Bahrain and the following weekend in Jeddah — face mounting logistical pressure, with freight shipments for the Middle East normally beginning days in advance. With no clear sign of the conflict easing, the risk associated with moving hundreds of team members and thousands of tons of equipment has become too high.

From a sporting perspective, the cancellations would reduce the championship from 24 to 22 races, leaving an unexpected five-week gap between the Japanese Grand Prix on March 29 and the Miami Grand Prix on May 3.

The impact is not only logistical but financial. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia pay two of the highest hosting fees on the calendar, meaning the sport could absorb commercial losses exceeding £100 million, revenue that is normally distributed between teams and the commercial rights holder of Formula 1.

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Each team is therefore expected to face a reduction of several tens of millions in potential prize money, depending on how the final revenue distribution is calculated.

Alternatives were briefly explored, including potential replacement events at Algarve International Circuit, Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari, and Istanbul Park.

However, organizers concluded that the timeline required to stage a race was too short, and there was little likelihood of securing the necessary hosting fees to make a replacement viable.

With no realistic alternative available, the championship is expected to continue with a shortened calendar, before resuming normally in May once the season reaches the United States.