Why Sunday at Yas Marina may be a chess match disguised as a Grand Prix

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The stage is set. Three title contenders remain. One final race. And at Yas Marina, strategy has a habit of deciding championships. With Max Verstappen on pole, Lando Norris beside him, and Oscar Piastri lurking in P3, the final round of 2025 is far more than a straight fight to Turn 1. It’s a race that may be won or lost on the pit wall.

And the tactical landscape is anything but simple.

The one-stop: Fastest on paper, but far from guaranteed

According to Pirelli’s simulations, the medium → hard one-stop is the fastest route to the chequered flag. Optimal pit window: Lap 20–26.

It’s the same strategy used by almost everyone in 2024, including Norris, who converted it into a win that sealed McLaren’s Constructors’ Championship.

But this year, there’s a twist: unexpected front-axle graining on the medium and soft compounds during Friday running. Teams did not anticipate this, and as Pirelli’s Simone Berra put it: “On Thursday, this looked like a clear one-stop, now all strategies are on the table.”

That uncertainty alone could throw the finale wide open.

The two-stop: Slower on timing sheets, dangerous in reality

Theoretically slower, the two-stop only becomes viable if:

• Graining reappears
  
• The race becomes a DRS train
  
• A midfield driver triggers an undercut cascade
  
• Or someone in the top three decides they must create something rather than wait for it
  

The options:

• Medium → Hard → Medium
  Pit windows: Lap 15–21 and 37–43
  
• Medium → Hard → Hard
  Pit windows: Lap 11–17 and 34–40
  
• Medium → Hard → Soft
  Potentially the quickest two-stop configuration
  Pit windows: Lap 17–23 and 40–48
  

Expect at least one frontrunner to consider these… especially Piastri, who needs more than a straightforward race to stay alive in the title fight.

McLaren’s curious choice: Two sets of hards in the garage

Most teams saved two sets of mediums.
McLaren did not.

They kept two hard sets, signalling that:

1. They fear front-graining more than others
   
2. They expect the hard compound to be decisive
   
3. They may be preparing for a late hard-tyre attack window
   

This could give Norris a stability advantage or leave him exposed if the race becomes soft- or medium-dependent.

The back of the grid: The Hamilton blueprint

Lewis Hamilton starts P16,  same as last year, when he stormed to P4 with a hard → medium strategy.

Expect:

• A deep first stint
  
• Hope for a Safety Car
  
• A late charge

But this time, hard → soft may be stronger depending on track evolution.
Optimal pit window: Lap 39–45.

Championship implications: Who must do what?

• Verstappen must win. No exotic strategy required from pole.
  
• Norris only needs to finish behind Verstappen to seal the title, but he claims he wants to win it outright.
  
• Piastri needs a victory and chaos. His best chance?
  Do the opposite of the leaders. Force their hand. Gamble early. Or go long.
  

He’s the wildcard  and everyone knows it.

The final unknown: Will Abu Dhabi 2025 become another strategic classic?

History says yes.
2010.
2021.
Even last year’s undercut poker game.

Yas Marina rewards bold strategy, and this year, with graining, tire variation, and three contenders bringing three different needs, the most important decisions of the season may not happen behind the wheel, but on the pit wall.

Sunday is going to be a chess match.
A mind game.
A title decider written in tyre compounds and pit windows.

And the smallest call could make the biggest difference.

Thumbnail credits: © Spas Genev | Dreamstime.com