The Silver Arrows arrived in Japan as the class of the 2026 field — and Free Practice 3 at Suzuka did nothing to change that reading.

Andrea Kimi Antonelli and George Russell locked out the top two positions in the final practice session before qualifying, with the 18-year-old Italian posting the fastest time of the morning — a 1m29.362s on soft tyres (the most grippy compound in Pirelli’s allocation, designed for short push laps rather than long runs). Russell slotted in just 0.254 seconds behind, the pair demonstrating the kind of systematic pace advantage that has defined Mercedes’ start to the 2026 season.

Charles Leclerc gave Ferrari reason for qualified optimism with a 1m30.229s for third, but the 0.867-second deficit to Antonelli told a clearer story than the position alone. His final soft-tyre attempt — the one that might have closed the gap — was compromised when both he and Liam Lawson ran wide at the Spoon (the long, high-speed left-hand sweeper in Suzuka’s back section) in separate incidents. Lawson’s excursion was triggered by a Haas stationary at the apex — the radio commentary that followed was, reportedly, not suitable for broadcast.

Oscar Piastri slotted in fourth at 1m30.364s, which was at least consistent with the McLaren narrative of this weekend: competitive enough to feature, not yet fast enough to challenge. More pressing was the situation involving his teammate. Lando Norris’s car spent the opening phase of FP3 elevated on garage stands while the team replaced its ERS pack (the energy recovery system that harvests braking energy and deploys it for extra power). McLaren had emphatically insisted after the Chinese GP — where both drivers were absent from the race due to the same failure — that a repeat would not occur. That it nearly did again at Suzuka raised questions the team would rather not be answering on a qualifying morning. To their credit, the mechanics resolved the issue in time for Norris to complete a late soft-tyre run, finishing just over a second off Mercedes pace.

The most structurally significant subplot of the session, however, had a different address. Max Verstappen’s Red Bull continued to look deeply uncomfortable at a circuit that, in previous regulations, the Dutchman owned. On-board footage showed the RB21 catching a slide through the exit of Degner 2 (a fast, off-camber right-hander in the infield that punishes any instability under throttle), before understeering (the tendency of the car to push wide rather than rotate through a corner) through the hairpin. His radio exchange with the team was pointed: asked whether he needed more high-speed front downforce (the aerodynamic load that keeps the nose planted through fast corners), Verstappen confirmed — in unambiguous terms — that he did. On mediums (the intermediate compound between hard and soft), he could manage only 1m31.354s, a time beaten by Gabriel Bortoleto’s Audi on the same rubber.

That comparison carries more meaning than a mid-session leaderboard position normally would. Audi’s entry is in its first season of competition; Red Bull has won four consecutive constructors’ championships. That Bortoleto and Nico Hülkenberg — on long medium-tyre runs — were in the same territory as the reigning champion’s car pointed to a genuine deficit, not a programme discrepancy.

Aston Martin, meanwhile, occupied a different dimension entirely. Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll posted their best efforts on soft tyres and still found themselves more than four seconds adrift of Antonelli’s benchmark — a gap that removes them from any realistic Saturday conversation.

A contextual footnote worth noting: the current pace at Suzuka already rivals what Max Verstappen produced in FP3 at the same circuit in 2023 — the first year of the previous regulations, which were considerably more mature by that stage of the season. That this is only the third race weekend of the 2026 cycle, with ambient temperatures cooler at 16°C versus 28°C three years ago, underscores both the rate of development across the grid and the scale of the gap still to be closed to last year’s pole lap.

Qualifying at Suzuka begins shortly. Mercedes hold the initiative. The question is who, if anyone, can take it from them.

Thumbnail: By courtesy of Pirelli