A Miami weekend that left the SF-26 further behind than when it arrived. A Canadian podium that suggested everything had quietly shifted. Ferrari now head into the slowest race of the year as the team most expected to win it.

Ferrari arrive at the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix installed as race favourites by multiple paddock observers, including Sky Sports F1, following Lewis Hamilton’s career-best second-place finish at the Canadian Grand Prix and the structural advantages the SF-26 carries into the Principality. The shift is striking. As recently as the Miami weekend in early May, Ferrari were the team in crisis, having brought 11 upgrades to the SF-26 and slipped backwards in the Constructors’ Championship. Three weeks later, with Hamilton three points behind Charles Leclerc in the Drivers’ standings and the team within two points of Mercedes in the Constructors’, the conversation has reset entirely.

The Monaco-specific case for Ferrari rests on what the circuit does to the SF-26’s weaknesses. The car’s chief deficit through the opening five rounds has been straight-line speed, a result of a power unit that has been comprehensively outperformed by Mercedes and to a lesser extent Red Bull. Monaco neutralizes that deficit almost entirely. The 3.337-kilometre layout contains no full-throttle sections of meaningful length, and the longest straight on the circuit is shorter than the typical run to a chicane elsewhere on the calendar. The performance characteristics that matter at Monte Carlo are mechanical grip, cornering precision and qualifying single-lap pace. The SF-26 has shown competitive numbers on all three across the season so far.

Hamilton’s Canadian weekend offered the strongest evidence yet that the team’s race execution had improved. He qualified fifth and finished second, sealing the result with a clean late overtake on Max Verstappen in the closing laps. “Absolutely awesome to fight with one of the greats,” Hamilton said afterwards. “It’s been pretty tough for the past year and a bit, so to finally find our sweet spot and have a good weekend, it’s an amazing feeling.” The decision he made before the weekend, to scrap his simulator preparation entirely on the basis that the virtual car was not reflecting on-track behavior, was vindicated by the result. Whether that judgement carries to Monaco, where simulator preparation is typically most valuable, is one of the open questions of the weekend.

The Leclerc dimension carries its own significance. Monaco is the race that has historically promised more than it delivered for him, and the circumstances around his Canadian weekend, where he qualified seventh and finished fourth, suggest a car capable of supporting him if everything aligns. Leclerc has spent the season as the most consistent defender of the 2026 regulations among the drivers, repeatedly arguing that the racing remains strategic rather than artificial. Monaco, the most strategic race on the calendar, is the ideal stage for that view to be tested.

The technical opportunity sharpens the favourites status further. The FIA’s ADUO system, which grants engine upgrade tokens to manufacturers whose power unit falls below a defined performance benchmark, is set to confirm which teams qualify in the days following the Canadian Grand Prix. Ferrari are widely expected to qualify under the system, which would provide a route to address the straight-line deficit that has shaped their season. The timing of any confirmation, in the build-up to Monaco, would add an additional layer of momentum to a team that has now strung together two consecutive weekends of competitive performance.

What Monaco will demand is the conversion. Being favoured to win a Grand Prix is not the same as winning one, and the Principality is unforgiving of the smallest error at any point across the weekend. Mercedes will arrive with their first significant upgrade now bedded in, McLaren are entering their 1000th race and want to mark it with a result, and Verstappen at Monaco has always been a threat. The race begins Sunday June 7 at 3:00pm local time. Three weeks after the team’s lowest point of the season, Ferrari are heading to Monte Carlo expected to win. How they handle the expectation will define the next phase of their 2026 campaign.

Thumbnail: By courtesy of Pirelli